BTC/USD Forex Signal: Weakly Bullish

No convincing support or resistance levels between $37,179 and $41,993.

Previous BTC/USD Signal

My previous signal on Wednesday last week was not triggered, as none of the key levels which were reached that day produced a reversal.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.50% per trade.

Trades must be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Friday.

Long Trade Ideas

• Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $38,961 or $37,179.
• Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Short Trade Ideas

• Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $41,993, $42,896, or $45,668.
• Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote on Wednesday last week that we were seeing a more bullish technical picture now, and I thought that the best opportunities that might set up would probably be either a long trade from a retracement to $40,568 or a short trade from a bearish reversal at $42,896.

I also thought that if the price could continue to rise and get established above $42,896 that would be a bullish sign.

This was an OK call, as although neither of these levels proved to be important that day, I was correct to see $42,896 as a pivotal point as the price remained below and it and has continued to trade somewhat lower ever since.

The story with Bitcoin now is one of consolidation: zooming out to a daily chart shows that the price is within a narrowing triangle pattern.

There is a support level at $38,961 but it does not look reliable. This suggests that the price is most likely to chop around for the time being between $37,179 and $41,993.

I am prepared to take reversals from either of those levels without directional bias, as I expect that Bitcoin will continue to consolidate today.

There is nothing of high importance scheduled today regarding either the USD or Bitcoin.