Looking for a Bullish Bottom

Our expectations suggest a return to the rise of natural gas during its upcoming trading.

Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) declined in their recent trading at the intraday levels, to record daily losses until the moment of writing this report, by -1.00%. It settled at the price of $8.621 per million British thermal units, after declining during trading on Friday by – 2.66%. During the past week, natural gas rose in trading that witnessed high volatility throughout the week, by 2.87%.

Baker Hughes said US gas rigs were unchanged at 151 rigs, and various rigs remained at two. In the same period in 2021 there were 96 gas rigs and no various rigs in operation, in general there were 461 rigs in operation a year ago.

Elsewhere, Russian gas producer Gazprom (GAZP) said its gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine through the Sudga entry point were seen at 41.9 million cubic meters on Monday, unchanged from Sunday. Gazprom said Ukraine had rejected a request to supply gas through another major entry point, Sukhranovka.

After an explosion at the Freeport LNG terminal, the market remains unclear how the subsequent outage will affect inventories. Freeport officials indicated that the plant will remain closed for at least three weeks, meaning that the gas will be available for local consumption or will be stored.

Technically, the price is trying to search for a bullish bottom to take as a base that might help it gain the necessary positive momentum to regain its recovery and rise again. This is in light of its trading along major and minor bullish slope lines in the medium and short term, as shown in the attached chart for a (daily) period. With the continuation of the positive support for its trading above its simple moving average for the previous 50 days, we also notice during it that the arrival of the relative strength indicators to oversold areas.

Therefore, our expectations suggest a return to the rise of natural gas during its upcoming trading, provided that its stability returns above the resistance level 8.870, after which it will target again the pivotal resistance level 9.550.