Looking for a Bullish Bottom

Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) settled on a decline in its recent trading at the intraday levels, to achieve slight daily gains until the moment of writing this report, by 0.36%. It settled at the price of $6.696 per million British thermal units, after it fell during Friday’s trading by It reached -6.34%. Last week, the price fell by -20.77 percent.

Natural gas futures were hit with the closing of the exceptionally volatile trading week, Nymex gas futures for July were down 52.0 cents and settled at $6.944 per million British thermal units. The August contract fell by 53.2 cents to $6.906.

Spot NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg was also down 85.5 cents to $6,770 ahead of the extended weekend due to the 19th National Independence Day holiday being spent on Monday in the United States.

The impact of the June 8 explosion at the Freeport LNG export terminal, and the ensuing announcement that exports from the facility would be halted for at least three months, continued to weigh on the minds of market participants. They may be out of order until late this year, and these developments are likely to enable the utilities to put gas that was destined for export into storage for next winter, relieving the supply fears that have plagued the market this spring.

However, production on Friday held about 95 billion cubic feet near its average for the month, and about 2 billion cubic feet less than what the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expected the summer average could be.

Prices proved volatile outside the US as well over the past week, although they rose in some regions such as Europe and Asia which are the main destinations for US LNG, amid growing concerns about insufficient supplies from US exporters due to the Freeport incident.

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Technically, the price is trying to correct the main bullish trend in the medium term and search for a bullish bottom to take as a base. This may gain it some positive momentum to regain its recovery and rise again. This is especially with the arrival of the relative strength indicators to areas that are very oversold, and exaggeratedly compared to the price movement. It approaches pivotal support level 6.521, but it continues to suffer from negative pressure due to its trading below the simple moving average for the previous 50 days.

Therefore, our expectations indicate a likely scenario of a return to the rise of natural gas during its upcoming trading, provided that the support level 6.521 remains intact, to target the first resistance levels at 7.532.