Index Takes Off to Upside

I think you have to be cautious and take profits as soon as you can, because this is a market that has decided it no longer has any interest in panicking

• The NASDAQ 100 Index exploded to the upside, hanging about the 13,250 level.
• This is an area that I think will continue to be crucial, so it’ll be interesting to see how we behave.
• Thursday is obviously going to be overshadowed by Friday, which is the Non-Farm Payroll announcement.
• Because of this, I think it’s likely that we will see the market somewhat quiet on Thursday, but I must admit that breaking above the dual shooting stars is a very bullish sign.

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Pullback Likely

However, if you look to the left, you can see that there is a lot of noise between here and 13,600, so I think we may get a little bit of a pullback. (Full disclosure here, I thought that yesterday as well.) That being said, markets eventually need to come back, but it looks like Wall Street is in a frenzy right now based upon the idea that the Federal Reserve is going to come and save them. This has people piling into technology stocks, which of course have reported better than expected earnings on the whole, but the outlook is a bit of a question at this point.

If we turn around and break down below the 13,000 level, it’s possible that the market could go to the 12,800 level, possibly even lower than that.

I believe that the real rubber meets the road after the jobs number, because if the jobs number comes in really hot, then we have the possibility that people will start to worry about the Federal Reserve raising rates again. Quite frankly, this is a market that is flying in the face of the fundamentals, but that’s nothing new. Keep in mind that markets are built to go higher, so it only takes a handful of companies in the NASDAQ 100 to move this thing to the upside. If we break above the 13,600 level, this thing is going to launch towards 14,000 rather quickly.

On a breakdown, I think you have to be cautious and take profits as soon as you can, because this is a market that has decided it no longer has any interest in panicking. As long as Wall Street thinks they are going to be bailed out, there’s a good chance this market will find plenty of buyers.

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