S&P 500 Forecast: Showing Hesitation

Sooner or later, markets will either believe the Federal Reserve or will completely ignore them.

• The S&P 500 went back and forth Tuesday as we continue to show a bit of hesitation.
• It’s worth noting that the market had struggled in this area previously, and had even sold off quite drastically.
• We are hovering just above the 4100 level in the E-mini contract, and that is an area that had been the bottom of the consolidation area marked by a blue box.

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Approaching the 4000 Level

If we break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the Tuesday session, it’s very likely that the S&P 500 will drift down to the 4000 level. The 4000 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that will more likely than not attract a lot of attention. Furthermore, you should keep in mind that Friday is the Non-Farm Payroll announcement, and you need to be cautious about the news this week. After all, there might be a lack of liquidity at times, or perhaps there may be absolute panic. You never know in this type of environment. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi landing in Taiwan seemed to have rattled a few nerves here and there, but at the end of the day, it does not seem like anything is going to happen.

If the S&P 500 were to break above the 4200 level, then it’s likely that we can look into the 4300 level which is the next major resistance barrier. Having said that, I don’t think it’s likely to happen between now and the jobs number, because more likely than not people are going to continue to pay close attention to the Federal Reserve and what it may do about interest rates. After all, the market is now convinced that the Federal Reserve has pivoted, although there have been a couple of officials who have explicitly denied this. Sooner or later, markets will either believe the Federal Reserve or will completely ignore them. So far, they have chosen the latter of the two options. With that being the case, it would not be a stretch at this point to suggest that sooner or later we will get a massive flush lower. When that is, we don’t know, but a little bit of position sizing goes a long way in an environment like this as most certainly see a sudden move.

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