Gold Forecast: Wild Wednesday

You need to be very cautious with your position size, as the gold market has been like a wrecking ball for a lot of trading accounts lately. 

Gold markets were all over the place Wednesday, as we continue to see a lot of volatility in most major markets. Gold is being thrown around by the bond market, which is all over the place as well. Keep in mind that gold has a lot of crosscurrents to deal with right now, such as the previously mentioned bond market, the US dollar, the concerns about inflation, and the concerns of the global economy slowing down in general.

Looking at the candlestick, this suggests that there is a lot of indecision, and it’s worth noting that the 200-day EMA above is sitting at the $1855 level and going sideways. Because of this, it suggests that the market is more likely than not going to continue to see more consolidation than anything else. If we were to break above the 200-day EMA, we have to deal with the 50-day EMA, so therefore you have a situation where the noise above is going to continue to cause major issues.

However, if we were to break out above the $1880 level, then it’s possible that the market will have just completed a major “double bottom”, and then go looking to reach the $2000 level. The $2000 level is an area where we have seen massive resistance previously, so it could end up being a bit of a target for those who are trying to make out to the upside. Alternately, if we were to break down below the $1800 level, then it’s likely that the market could go to the $1750 level, maybe even the $1700 level after that.

Keep an eye on the US Dollar Index, because it does have a lot of influence on where we go in the gold market. You also have to keep an eye on that 10-year yield in America, because it is also a major negative correlation. Ultimately, gold is trying to figure out what it wants to be, but it looks like we are still trying to figure out what to do next. Because of this, you need to be very cautious with your position size, as the gold market has been like a wrecking ball for a lot of trading accounts lately. Ultimately, this is a market that continues to grind sideways more than anything else.