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The only thing you can count on is a lot of volatility, especially as the commodity market in China has such a major influence on the Aussie.
The AUD/USD currency pair initially tried to rally during the session on Thursday as we reached the 0.70 level. The 0.70 level is an area that I think a lot of people will be paying close attention to, as it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. Furthermore, it’s an area that we have seen the light of noise in the past, so having said that it is likely that the market will then have quite a bit of reaction.
The candlestick for the trading session is a bit negative looking, therefore think is likely that we go back down to the 0.69 level. The warm one session the 0.69 level is an area that I think will continue to be slightly important, but if we break down below there, then I think that the market probably goes looking to the 0.68 level which has even more supported. This is a market that is likely to seek lower levels to find value again, and it looks like we are starting to run out of momentum. It’s also worth noting that we are below the 50 Day EMA again, so that is also a negative turn of events.
On the other side of the equation, if we were to break above the 0.7050 level, then it’s likely that the market could go much higher. At that point, the market is likely to go looking toward the 200 Day EMA, which is somewhere near the 0.72 level. That then would threaten the idea of the overall uptrend, so it’s likely going to attract more short-covering comments in this market much higher.
On the other hand, I think the only thing you can count on at this point in time is a lot of volatility, especially as the commodity market in China has such a major influence on the Aussie. One side note to consider is the fact that we are starting to see problems with the Chinese banking system, which is hardly getting any press at all. Bank runs could be a major problem, and therefore as that story picks up a bit of traction, it’s possible that the Australian dollar gets punished as a result. That being said, that’s probably a story for down the road, but it is something that I’m watching closely at this point. There are problems with mortgage payments in over 80 Chinese cities presently.
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