Index Has a Wicked Reversal

I am looking for signs of exhaustion or continuation to start shorting.

• The NASDAQ 100 Index gaps higher to kick off the trading session on Thursday, but then turns right back around at the 13,500 level to show signs of exhaustion.
• The market looks as if it is running a bit hot at this point, so I think it’s likely that we will continue to see trouble.
• Furthermore, you need to pay close attention to the bond market, because of the bond market continues to see rising rates, which will be significant as far as negative influences are concerned on this market.

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The 13,000 level underneath will be important, and therefore you need to pay close attention to it. If we break down below it, then I think we could start to see a rather significant selloff, with a potential to drop all the way down to the 12,250 level. Breaking down below that level, not only would be a significant breakdown, but it would also break through previous support, and then also would be the 50 Day EMA breaking down as well. In that scenario, it is likely that we would consider you to see further selling pressure, and would probably see various indices around the world drop.

On the other hand, if we break above the heights of the day, then it’s likely that we could go testing the 200 Day EMA above. In that scenario, we have a good shot at making a rather big move. I think ultimately, above there then you would have to look at this through the prism of a “buy-and-hold” attitude. All things being equal, this is a market that I think will continue to be a situation where the bond market will be driving everything. This marketwill continue to see a lot of volatility because quite frankly people are still trying to figure out what the Federal Reserve is going to do. As usual, they have made the situation in the market worse, due to the fact that the Federal Reserve has spoon-fed the markets for so long that they don’t believe that the Fed will remain. Nonetheless, I think we have more downward pressure than anything else just waiting to happen. With this, I am looking for signs of exhaustion or continuation to start shorting. The Friday close will be very interesting to watch as it could give us an idea as to how people truly feel about this market.

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