Index Gives Up Early Gains

This week will be crucial for the outlook over the next several months.

• The NASDAQ 100 initially tried to rally on Friday but gave back gains as we began looking very negative by the end of the day.
• At this point, the market looks as if it is going to fall and test the 12,250 level.
• If we can break down below there, then it really starts to send the market much lower.

It’s interesting to see that the market is likely to see more negativity heading into next week, due to the fact that the Federal Reserve is going to have a very hawkish statement on Wednesday.

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The volatility does tend to breed more negativity, due to the fact that it also breeds uncertainty. Uncertainty is something that investors hate, so it makes quite a bit of sense that we would see selling. Furthermore, you also have to pay close attention to the fact that Snapchat mentioned that they are having trouble with advertising models, and people are starting to worry about the idea of other highflyers in the technology sector.

Breaking to the Upside

If we break to the upside, we have even more resistance at the 13,000 level. The 13,000 level is an area where we could be looking at a potential trend change, but I don’t think that’s likely to happen anytime soon. After that, the market is likely to see a lot of noise over the next couple of days, and it’s likely that we see a lot of false starts. Ultimately, I do think that this market will fall because the macroeconomic picture has not changed at all, and this looks a lot like a situation that will continue to be negative overall, so this nice little bounce should continue to see a lot of interest.

That being said though, you have to follow the price, so if we do break above the 13,000 level, then you have to reevaluate the situation. The only reason I can think that could happen is if the Federal Reserve does change its overall attitude. I don’t see that happening, but of course, anything is possible. It looks like the Friday candlestick was finally the signal I was looking for to suggest that the market is ready to pull back yet again. This week will be crucial for the outlook over the next several months.

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